It’s
that time of year when we feel compelled to look forward and back.
Individually, we assess the progress we made last year toward the goals we’d
hoped to achieve—you know, the ones in your business plan (writers, you do have
a business plan, yes?) as we draft new plans for the fresh new year ahead.
It
only makes sense that we accomplish all of that with a nod toward the context
in which we work—the greater world of crafting and publishing books. Of course,
there is always this caveat—none of us has a crystal ball. Still, there are
trends to be watched for.
In
looking ahead, I draw on what I’ve learned from nearly 20 years in this
industry, working with six different publishers and three literary agents on 16
books. I’ve also benefited from my position as a staff writer with The
Independent, a publishing trade magazine, though the views expressed here
are entirely my own.
Here,
in no particular order, are trends worth watching in 2016:
·
Balance:
Digital sales leveled off in 2015, and print sales were bolstered by, of all
things, the adult coloring book phenomenon. In 2016, we should see balance that
restores, at least in part, a sense of normalcy to writing and publishing.
Expect a lot less hand-wringing and wrangling over who’s going to come out on
top. As many observers have been quietly pointing out for years, there’s room at
the expanded publishing table for lots of diverse participants.
·
Settling:
As some of the frenzy diminishes, we can enjoy a more expansive sense of
purpose. 2016 may indeed be the year when authors and publishers and everyone
else in the industry draw the biggest collective breath they’ve taken in a good
long while, followed by a sigh of relief. At last, we can point ourselves back
toward our root. We can quit worrying ourselves to pieces over fluctuations in
the marketplace and focus again on our first love—creating great books.
·
Fewer
Players: No matter how you publish, chances are you’ve experienced diminishing
returns in the past few years—lower advances, fewer sales, smaller checks. The
bright-eyed optimism with which many ventured into publishing during the last several
years has been tempered by the hard truth that our world is populated with many
more books than will ever find readers in numbers significant enough to sustain
their creators. Authors will continue to drop out of the business, and on their
heels will be many in the burgeoning author services industry.
·
More
Personal: No doubt about it—the Amazon behemoth is here to stay. But part of
Amazon’s success is how they manage to be big and small all at once by catering
to a customer’s individual tastes and desires. Authors and publishers may not
be able to beat Amazon at its game, but they’re learning that they can best
Amazon at its own game, interacting in more significant and creative ways with
their readers.
·
The
Unexpected: In the Information Age, the same dichotomies that governed 2015
will prevail through the next year and beyond. Hyped trends (Star Wars, Go Set
a Watchman) are to the publishing landscape what corn is to an Iowa
interstate—an ubiquitous blur that threaten to make us forget why we came.Thankfully,
there’s always the potential for a surprise. For that reason if nothing else,
long live the coloring book!
Co-founder of 49 Writers and founder of the
independent authors cooperative Running Fox Books, Deb
Vanasse has authored sixteen
books. Her most recent are Write
Your Best Book, a practical guide to writing books that rise above the
rest; What
Every Author Should Know, a comprehensive guide to book publishing and
promotion; and Cold
Spell, a novel that “captures the harsh beauty of the terrain as well as
the strain of self-doubt and complicated family bonds,” according to Booklist.
Her next book, Wealth Woman: Kate Carmack
and the Klondike Race for Gold, comes out in April, 2016. She is also a staff writer for the
IBPA Independent.