I’ll begin with the same disclaimers as last year: I have no
crystal ball. I’m not clairvoyant. And I live in Alaska, pretty much as far as
a writer can get from the Right Coast publishing industry without needing a
passport. But I’ve published several books in a variety of ways—mostly
traditional, but also independently and in hybrid arrangements. And I try to keep
up where I can, believing that the view from the trenches is sometimes the
clearest.
So, from here in my mountainside office, where fingers meet
the keyboard, I offer my for-what-they’re-worth thoughts on trends in publishing
for 2015:
·
Amazon still
rules—and they’re changing the rules: Traditional publishers don’t like
Amazon making the rules, especially when it comes to e-book pricing. Now indie
authors are complaining too. Quoted in
a recent New York Times article,
one author complains that Amazon is “recreating that whole unfair bogus system
where they make the money and we authors survive on the pennies that are left.” News
flash: Amazon has always been in this for the money. A specific indie
author complaint has to do with Kindle Unlimited, a new (in 2014) subscription
program that features only title by authors enrolled in the KDP Select
(Amazon-exclusive) option. KU titles get more visibility than others on Amazon,
but the payment per download is less, sometimes substantially, than it is for
straight royalty sales. (For details, see the most recent
Author Earnings Report.)
·
As an author, the numbers aren’t in your favor: Simple math demonstrates that it’s not only the KU
effect that’s causing indie author income to slide. There’s also way more inventory
than ever before, partly because books no longer go out of print. By
the numbers: In 2010, there were 600,000 Kindle e-books; four years later,
there were 3 million. The net result is that it’s exponentially more difficult
for new work to get noticed, no matter how you publish.
·
There are
new gates: As evidenced by the
recent kerfuffle between Kindle Direct and an author over the number of hyphens
in his book, Amazon is increasing its efforts to make sure the book
products it sells (yes, dear author, you are a supplier, nothing more) have some
quality. Amazon also promotes book from its own imprints over other titles, and
some of its most lucrative categories, such as Amazon Short Reads, are by
invitation only. Amazon's not the only game in town, I know, but their domination of the market continues (see "Amazon rules" above).
·
Entrepreneurial
fatigue will have a natural winnowing effect: In traditional publishing,
there has always been a hefty attrition rate involving those who want to be
published but get discouraged before the right combination of talent, luck, and
determination gets them through the gates. That same fatigue will permeate the
ranks of indie authors as well. In the end, those with a combination of perseverance
and proper motivation (read: not solely for money) will remain, easing the
numbers problem a bit.
·
The author
services boom will moderate: One of my forthcoming books deals with the
Klondike gold rush, so I speak with some authority on this: there’s always lots
of money to be made “mining the miners.” A similar phenomenon occurred with the
indie publishing revolution, in the form of all sorts of author services
companies. Already some are going by the proverbial wayside as authors grow
weary of dishing out lots of cash and getting little back in terms of sales.
·
Pricing
will level off, with lower per-book returns for the author: A few years
back, indie authors could increase their visibility with aggressive pricing.
Now, KDP only allows free e-books for five days out of every ninety, and then
only for titles enrolled in Kindle Select. 99 cents may be the new free, but
readers aren’t as excited about 99 cent books. At the same time, there’s a glut
of newsletters alerting readers to discounted titles, diluting the effect even
as more and more of them require authors to pay for their listings. Adding to
the bottom-line woes of independently published authors: traditional publishers
are discounting their e-books more than ever before, offsetting to a certain
extent one marketing advantage indies once enjoyed.
·
In this
settling-out period, traditional publishers will continue to take few risks:
Modest advances will continue to be offered, even for some authors who used to
get big ones. The midlist author will continue to get squeezed out—and almost
every author ends up at midlist eventually.
·
When it
comes to discoverability and visibility, there’s no gaming the system: In
the beginning (circa 2009-2011), there were tricks indie authors used to get
their books noticed, especially on Amazon. Reality is starting to settle in;
see the first bullet point about Amazon making the rules.
·
Readers
want to be able to trust what they’re getting: Especially in children’s
books, literary fiction, and nonfiction (except self-help), readers want to
know that the books they’re getting are actually good, so even if they read on e-devices,
they discover books in much the same ways they always have, with online reader
reviews as a means of reinforcing their buying decisions.
Though this may all sound discouraging, it’s in fact nothing
more than a natural correction in the marketplace, similar to what went on when
the music industry went digital. As with musicians, the authors who make it
will be those whose primary motivation is passion, tempered with enough good
business sense to diversify their incomes from related enterprises that
reinforce their branding.
Overall, it’s still an exciting time to be an author. Revel
in what you can control: the joy of the creative process; the marvel that
you—yes, you—can write and publish a book. Just don’t set yourself up for
failure. Now more than ever, you need to educate yourself on your options in
publishing and decide
what’s best for you and your book.
